Android to drive doubling of smartphone market by 2016

Research firm Ovum has made some bold predictions about the smartphone market. The firm released a press release with their predictions and they definitely think Android will be the king of the hill.
The firm predicts the smartphone market will double by 2016, led by Google’s Android OS. Ovumthinks Android will have 38% of the worldwide market by 2016, leaving Apple with only 17.5%. Interestingly, Ovum predicts Windows Phone will top BlackBerry with marketshares of 17.2% and 16.5% respectively.
Android to drive doubling of smartphone market by 2016
Global shipments to hit 653 million by 2016
Android will take 38% market share compared toApple’s 17.5%
Nokia–Microsoft deal re-draws the smartphone landscape
The global smartphone market will double in size by 2016 to hit shipments of 653 million, predicts Ovum in a new forecast*. Android will drive the growth and will emerge asthe dominant platform, dramatically outperforming Apple with a massive 20.5 per cent lead on market share, finds the independent telecoms analyst.
Ovum predicts that smartphones will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.5 per cent between 2010 and 2016 and will account for approximately 40 per centof the mobile phone market. Asia-Pacific will bethe largest region, shipping just over 200 million units by 2016. Western Europe and NorthAmerica will remain strongmarkets with 175 million and 165 million shipmentsrespectively.
Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach said: “The smartphone market will see significant growth over the next five years, once again outperforming the wider mobile phone market. We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms, with Android storming into the lead with 38 per cent market share, compared to Apple iOS’ 17.5 per cent, by 2016.
“The success of the Android platform is being driven by the sheer number of hardware vendors supporting it at both the high and low ends of the market.”
According to Ovum’s forecast, just behind Apple iOS will be Windows Phone, with 17.2 per cent market share by 2016, followed by BlackBerry OS,with 16.5 per cent.
Leach continued: “We expect at least one other platform to achieve mainstream success withinthe forecast period. This could be an existing playerin the market such as Bada, WebOS, or MeeGo, orit could be a new entrant to the market place.”
According to Leach, the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft has redrawn the smartphone market and will result in a significant reduction in shipments of Symbian-based handsets as Nokia transitions to Windows Phone as its primary smartphone platform. However, Nokia still expects to ship 150 millionSymbian-based handsets so there will be shipments beyond 2012 and in some regions into 2016.
Leach continued: “For Microsoft the deal providesa committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone.”